Four tribes launched Kalshi-powered prediction apps. Here is who owns what, and why 145 tribes filed against Kalshi the next day.

On 7 October Kalshi announced PokkeTrades, Greenville, AIR Markets and Sovereign Edge, four tribal apps in Oklahoma and California, a month after Tunica-Biloxi's SaltTrade. The tribe owns the brand, Kalshi runs the exchange. The next day 130 tribes and 15 organisations filed against Kalshi at the Supreme Court, three weeks after the Ninth Circuit called its sports contracts Class III gaming on tribal land. $46.2 billion of tribal gaming revenue, and who gets it.

Is Kalshi legal in Delaware?

No letter, no suit. Delaware's only official move is its name on the 39-state Supreme Court brief of 7 October, which asks the Court to reverse the Third Circuit ruling that protects Kalshi inside Delaware. One BetRivers mobile monopoly, a 50 percent state cut, a 21+ floor and a $253 million market.

BetMGM made $86 million without a prediction market. Its CEO expects the Supreme Court to rule against them.

Third-quarter net revenue of $710 million, up 7 percent, and adjusted EBITDA up 112 percent to $86 million, on 3 percent fewer players. Adam Greenblatt told analysts on 13 October the Supreme Court will find Congress never intended sports and casino-style event contracts, called the platforms' retreat "cosmetics in pursuit of survival," and what the low-end guidance implies for Q4.

Is Kalshi legal in Washington, DC?

No letter, no suit. The District's only official move is its name on the 39-state Supreme Court brief of 7 October. Five licensed sportsbooks, an 18+ betting age that matches Kalshi's, a 20 percent tax, and a D.C. Circuit that has never ruled on the question.

Ohio gave 10 prediction markets until October 16 to stop. Here is who got the letter and what changed.

On 2 October the Ohio Casino Control Commission told Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, Novig, Underdog, ProphetX, Webull, Plus500, Gemini Titan and Moomoo to stop offering sports contracts by 16 October. Why the Sixth Circuit's 25 September ruling made the letters possible, why Kalshi is not on the list, and the $33.2 million of political money on the other side.

Prediction markets just had a $22.2 billion week. Here is what the number actually counts.

Bloomberg counted a record $22.2 billion week and an $8.56 billion weekend for Kalshi and Polymarket, with combos at 65 percent of Kalshi's flow. On the one day with both measures published, $3.68 billion of notional was $643 million of money actually paid. What the record counts, and why the gap matters to the CFTC and the states.

Kalshi is investigating $173 of bets on Trump's press secretary pick. Here is what the timing shows.

Three trades bought Katie Zacharia at one to two cents before her appointment was reported on 9 October, the last two about 20 minutes ahead of the news, and stand to pay about $9,600 on $173. The timestamps, the implied prices and the four earlier insider cases that show what Kalshi does next.

The CFTC wrote casino bets out of the swap definition. Here is what its two new rules actually say.

On 9 October the CFTC published its two event contract rules: an immediately effective exclusion of licensed sportsbook and casino bets from the swap definition, and a proposal to write event contracts in. The two-part test, 30-day comment windows, and the volume figures that do not match.

The NFL told the Supreme Court sports contracts are not swaps. Here is what the brief actually asks for.

On 8 October the NFL filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey against Kalshi in docket 26-299. It does not ask for a ban: it wants a 21+ age floor, its prohibited-wager list adopted and state oversight, and a ruling before the 2027 season. Kalshi responds by 9 November.

Nebraska's online sports betting vote: $14.65m raised, almost all of it from sportsbooks

FanDuel and DraftKings have put about $14m into the campaign for Initiatives 440 and 441, while Nebraska's casinos made $3.45m from sports betting in four months. What a yes vote on 3 November would and would not change.

DraftKings at a three-year low, Flutter at a six-year low. What the sportsbook selloff is pricing.

DraftKings closed at $18.58 on 1 October, Flutter is 76% off its peak, and together they are worth about $23bn while Kalshi raises at $40bn. Handle is still growing 15%. What the market is actually pricing is the cost of the second product.

The CFTC sent two prediction market rules to the White House. Here is what each one can actually do.

On 28 September the CFTC filed one proposed rule and one interim final rule on event contracts with the White House. Neither is published, and the Sixth Circuit has already said calling a contract a swap does not settle whether a state can regulate it.

Kalshi is ending its volume rewards a year early. What the numbers say.

Kalshi told the CFTC it will shut its Volume Incentive Program on 13 October, a year ahead of schedule, after nearly one million $5,500 trades produced over $5bn of ether perp volume in a month. What the filing says and what it does not prove.

Where is the money actually positioned on a perp exchange?

We measured all 234 perpetual markets: three hold 64% of $12.5bn, 116 hold under $1m each, and open interest rose 12% in six days while prices fell.

What does a crypto funding rate actually cost you?

We measured all 234 perpetual markets on one venue. Median 10.95% annualised, BTC ETH and SOL all sitting on the floor, and 230 of 234 had longs paying shorts.

The Fed hiked. Here is the prediction market scorecard.

Five weeks out both venues favoured a hold. Nine days out they split. A day out both said 87c hike - and the Fed hiked. $311M traded, and the busiest contracts lost.

Is Kalshi legal in Maine?

Maine gave its four federally recognised tribes exclusive mobile rights as economic development policy. A federally regulated exchange routes around the whole arrangement.

When two prediction markets disagree, which one is right?

On 7 September Kalshi and Polymarket named opposite favourites for the Fed decision. Eight days later both sit at 87c on the same outcome. We tracked the whole arc.

Is Kalshi legal in West Virginia?

The control case. West Virginia legalised in 2018, went online in 2019 and licensed nine books - and the exchanges still operate entirely outside all of it.

What does it actually cost to trade on a prediction market?

We measured 1,728 live contracts. Median 0.1c in the deepest markets, 27c in the thinnest. The 45% quoted under 2c carry 98.8% of the money.

Is Kalshi legal in New Hampshire?

No state order restricts Kalshi here. But New Hampshire takes 51% of mobile betting revenue from one licensed operator - and that operator sells prediction markets everywhere except New Hampshire.

Can you bet NFL player props on prediction markets?

Yes, hundreds of them. On one Week 2 game, 130 of 148 listed props had never traded, and one anytime-touchdown market was 78% of the volume.

What happens to a tennis bet if a player retires mid-match?

On a prediction market a retirement is a win, not a void. A walkover before play settles 50-50. The exact rules, quoted verbatim, plus what US Open markets were trading at.

Is Kalshi legal in Mississippi?

No state order restricts Kalshi here. But a licensed Mississippi sports bet still requires being inside a casino - the mobile bill passed the House 100-11 and died in the Senate.

Is Kalshi legal in Kansas?

No Kansas order restricts Kalshi. But the contracts holding the licensed Kansas sportsbook market together expire in August 2027, and the legislature blocked renewal talks.

Can you trade Fed rate decisions on Kalshi and Polymarket?

Yes, and they are among the biggest markets on both venues. On 7 September the two exchanges named different favourites for the September FOMC meeting.

Is Kalshi legal in Nebraska?

No state order, no online sportsbook, and two ballot measures on 3 November. FanDuel and DraftKings put $3.5m each behind legalising - while running prediction markets there in the meantime.

Funding rate & liquidation calculator: what a leveraged position really costs

Liquidation price, distance to liquidation, and what funding costs per day, month and year on notional and as a share of margin. Hyperliquid, Binance and Bybit intervals. Free tool.

Will the Supreme Court take the Kalshi case?

New Jersey filed on 2 September. Kalshi’s response is due about 2 October, extendable. The market says 46¢ by year-end; an analyst says 90% eventually. Both can be right — one is about whether, the other about when.

NFL Week 1: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs the books, logged before kickoff

Fourteen games, three prices each, one timestamp. Books de-vigged vs Kalshi vs Polymarket: max gap 2.2 points, median 1.0. Logged now, scored after the games.

Kalshi's oil perpetual, explained

A future with no expiry date, funded three times a day, on a commodity that stops trading at weekends. What Kalshi is actually asking the CFTC for — and why oil is not bitcoin.

Is Kalshi legal in Alabama?

No sportsbook, no lottery, no gaming regulator — and the Eleventh Circuit is the one circuit that has not ruled either way. Alabama is the emptiest map on the board.

Is Kalshi legal in South Carolina?

No attorney general action at all. The only litigation is private, brought by a Delaware LLC under a loss-recovery statute South Carolina adopted in 1712. Kalshi still trades there.

Is Kalshi legal in Arkansas?

Arkansas ruled prediction markets illegal in an attorney general opinion in October 2025, then sent no letter and filed no suit. It taxes three sportsbooks of its own while an untaxed rival runs openly.

Is Kalshi legal in Idaho?

Idaho co-signed the 39-state brief that beat Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit on 28 August. Five days later the state has issued no letter, no suit, nothing. Kalshi still trades there.

SCOTUS market: 29¢ to 55.5¢ in one hour

Hourly Polymarket data around the Ninth Circuit ruling. The December contract nearly doubled in sixty minutes. The October contract did not move at all. CSV included.

Is Kalshi legal in Hawaii?

Hawaii bans every form of gambling and has no sportsbook. Kalshi and Polymarket still run here, and no Hawaii authority has ever written a letter.

Is Kalshi legal in Alaska?

The Ninth Circuit ruling is binding precedent in Alaska. Alaska has no sportsbook, no lottery and no regulator built to enforce it.

Ninth Circuit: what changes in each of its nine states

The ruling binds nine states. Two already have injunctions. Three have no legal sportsbook at all — and those are the ones nobody is writing about.

Does the NFL have a deal with Kalshi or Polymarket?

No. And the reason matters: the league can veto bet types at a sportsbook by contract, but has to go to a federal regulator to reach an exchange.

Do sportsbooks make money from prediction markets?

Flutter booked $6m in Q2 and guided to $50m for the year — with an identical $50m EBITDA benefit. That equality is the whole story.

Is Kalshi legal in Oklahoma? The state with no regulator to send the letter

No cease-and-desist, no licensed sportsbook, and a tribal exclusivity fight running through the Ninth Circuit instead.

Is Kalshi legal in Rhode Island? The state that sued both — and got sued back

No injunction, no ruling, three live cases. And a state that takes a bigger cut of sports betting than any other.

Is Kalshi legal in Utah? The first state to win a final judgment

No sportsbook, no lottery, no betting tax — and the first final federal judgment that state gambling law reaches Kalshi. What it does, and what it pointedly does not do.

Is Kalshi legal in Louisiana? The loudest state without a lawsuit

The regulator says no licence, no market — and has sent the letters to prove it. What it has not done is sue. Kalshi operates untaxed while licensed books pay 21.5%.

States are beating Kalshi 19–4. The coverage says the opposite.

Nineteen of 23 injunction decisions have gone to the states. Why the reporting reads the other way — and a correction to our own newsletter.

Is Kalshi legal in Virginia? The state that legislated everything else

Virginia wrote rules for online casinos, skill games and DFS in 2026. Event contracts were in none of them — and the Fourth Circuit is about to rule above the state anyway.

Is Kalshi legal in North Carolina? The first state to write CFTC authority into law

Is Kalshi legal in Indiana? The state whose regulator says it is not the regulator

Is Kalshi legal in Oregon? The only state where the gap is a rule, not a lawsuit

Do Kalshi’s geofences actually work?

Is Kalshi legal in Missouri?

Whale board: the top BTC long changed hands

Prediction market change log

Is Kalshi legal in Tennessee?

Who pays for prediction market coverage?

Is Kalshi legal in Texas? The state that studied instead of sued

Is Kalshi legal in Florida? The compact question nobody has litigated

Is Kalshi legal in Pennsylvania? The regulator objects, the legislature negotiates

Is Kalshi legal in Illinois? Sports contracts are blocked, and a tax is waiting

Is Kalshi legal in Connecticut? The first cease-and-desist, and what happened next

Is Kalshi legal in Iowa? The lawsuit Kalshi filed first

Is Kalshi legal in Montana? Sports contracts are restricted

Is Kalshi legal in Colorado? Untaxed, unlicensed, unchallenged

Is Kalshi legal in Maryland? The case Kalshi lost

Is Kalshi legal in Georgia? The only sports market in the state

Is Kalshi legal in Minnesota? The ban that never started

Is Kalshi legal in Arizona? The criminal case that got thrown out

Is Kalshi legal in California? The tribes and the Ninth Circuit

Is Kalshi legal in Wisconsin? The CFTC just lost round one

Is Kalshi legal in New Jersey? The Third Circuit ruling explained

How do election prediction markets work?

Is Kalshi legal in Ohio? The $5M fine fight

Is Kalshi legal in Kentucky?

The 50-state Kalshi legality tracker

New York sues Kalshi for $36 billion

Is Kalshi legal in Washington? The injunction is live

Free tool: parlay calculator — payout and the real house edge

Most common Powerball numbers: do they improve your odds?

Kalshi vs Polymarket: fees compared

Is Kalshi legal in New Mexico?

Is Kalshi legal in Massachusetts?

Do preseason rankings predict the CFB champion?

Is Kalshi legal in Nevada?

Is Kalshi legal in Michigan?

Powerball expected value: is a $700M jackpot ever a good bet?

Lottery odds vs. prediction market odds

NFL camps open, Super Bowl board reprices

Congress weighs a ban on sports event contracts

Sportsbook vs prediction market: where is the better price?